GDP 4.5%: How it became worst in 6 years ?

The last quarter GDP growth figure has arrived. The apprehensions have proved to be true. The rate of GDP growth has come down to four and a half percent. Shortly before, the news agency Reuters surveyed economists in which it was expected that the rate would fall below five percent. But they too had expected the figure to be up to 4.7 percent. Now the figure that has come is worse than this fear. This is the worst figure in the last six years, before that in 2013, between January and March this rate was at 4.3%. It is a matter of concern that this is the sixth consecutive quarter when the rate of GDP growth has come down. The most worrying news is that the growth rate of the industry has fallen from 6.7% to just half a percent. On the other hand, the rate of increase in agriculture or agriculture sector has come down from 4.9 to 2.1% and the rate of services has also fallen from 7.3% to 6.8.

How to understand GDP ?

GDP is a gross domestic product.But this means that whatever is being made all over the country, whoever is earning as much as possible, the total sum of all that. And the calculation of earnings is not easy, so here is an easy way to calculate, to calculate expenses. The total expenditure incurred on buying anything is the GDP of the country.

The increase in it is called the GDP growth rate and from that it seems that the rate at which the country is progressing. At the same time, the figure of how much GDP is made above the capita GDP i.e. a person in the country is also released. And if this capita or per capita data remains below, then it directly means that the citizens of the country are in trouble, their needs are getting difficult or their needs are not being met.

While this figure is high, it means better life of citizens. It is not necessary that it does not mean poverty or hunger in the country, because it is average. On average, the capita GDP of America is around 55 thousand dollars, but even there, about ten percent of the people are unable to make arrangements to feed.

What a disturbing statistic !

India's per capita GDP in March this year was $2041, which was about one lakh forty-six thousand rupees. Many people are still raising families in a city like Mumbai on such an annual income.

But this is average. It also means that a lot of people are earning thousands or millions of times from it, and a large part of the country's population is not able to get even one-tenth of it.

The quarterly figure of GDP is also a matter of concern that in the last one and a half years, it has reached there by falling, which is the weakest figure of the last six years. Along with this, the other big concern is that the situation is not likely to improve at the moment.

Most economists believe that this time the increase in decline means that it is difficult to improve for the whole year. That is, they are seeing a decline in the pace of progress for the entire financial year. This too when the government has taken many steps to improve it.

The government is aiming to create a five trillion dollar economy. It is only by calculating the calculator that the GDP growth rate for it should be above 12 percent. For the last ten years, India has been dreaming of 10 percent growth, and has generally been growing between seven and eight percent annually. Last year, the rate has fallen by almost seven percent. But now if it falls further, it is a symptom of serious trouble.

The symptom of trouble is also because the fastest decline is visible in expenses. That too in the expenses of the common man is called consumer spending. That is, people are not buying goods, people are cutting expenses and thinking of the money they have or spending more.

The effect of this is that if there is no expenditure, then the goods will not be sold. If not, the traders and companies who make it will sell. He is in difficulty and his staff is in trouble. People's salary will not increase. Maybe, not even the mills, and there is a fear of going to the job. Many people have lost their jobs. Such news is coming from all around. This means that people do not have confidence in their own progress.

So far all that the government has done is on the path that loans from banks arise, money should come into the system, business should be fast and growth will increase.

But getting loan cheaper is not the cure for this problem. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman says that there is no recession in the country. From the theory of economics, she can be right that by definition it is not a state of slowdown or contraction. But what is called slow down in English will also be called recession in Hindi. And the Finance Minister himself has admitted that there is probably a slowdown.

Way Forward:

Now the question is what is the treatment of this slowdown. How will this trust come in the mind of the consumer that he should put his hand in his pocket and spend money by withdrawing money. There is only one way. The boom in the job market.

When people will see that they have a job in their hands and two offers in front, then this excitement arises in their mind that they start thinking of spending before earning.

Scholars have many suggestions for how this situation will come. But at this time, a problem of the government is also visible that the suggestions that come up should be tried out. This path does not follow. Even if the stock market runs, it is difficult to keep the economy going.

Right now, the new scholars who have joined the Economic Advisory Council have a lot of experience and some very effective suggestions. The government will at least have to heed the advice of these people.

Former Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh had expressed apprehension that with the demonetisation, the GDP growth rate may fall by one and a half percent. Now that this seems to be true, at least talking to them can cure the disease.

But after the latest data comes out, it can be said that instead of getting entangled in the technical definition of recession and the jargon of relapse or slowdown, the government should now seriously consider that the situation is very bad, and to recover from this situation Forgetting the distinction of parties, there should be a move towards taking everyone along and taking measures at war level.